From Moscow to Brussels: Armenia's Potential Pivot and the Erosion of Russian Influence

 

Armenia Considers Joining the European Union: A Shift Away from Russian Influence

Armenia's Geographic Eligibility for EU Membership

Despite being located in West Asia, Armenia's potential EU membership is not ruled out geographically. The term 'European' in EU membership criteria is interpreted broadly to include cultural, political, and economic factors. Similar to Cyprus and Georgia, Armenia's membership application would be subject to political assessment rather than strict geographic criteria.

Armenia's Relations with Russia: A History of Dependence

Armenia has historically relied on Russia as its security guarantor and economic partner. However, relations have deteriorated in recent years due to the conflict with Azerbaijan, Russia's failure to prevent the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Armenia's Attempts to Diversify Security Ties

In response to strained relations with Russia, Armenia has sought alternative security partners. France has emerged as a significant arms supplier, signing defense agreements to modernize Armenia's military. Additionally, Armenia has joined the International Criminal Court and distanced itself from the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Obstacles to EU Accession

Despite Armenia's desire for closer EU ties, it faces obstacles:

• Russian Military Bases: Armenia hosts multiple Russian military bases, with the lease expiring in 2044.
• Membership in Russian-Dominated Organizations: Armenia is still part of the Eurasian Customs Union and has strong economic ties with Russia.
• Governance and Rule of Law: While Armenia has made progress in these areas under its reformist government, it still falls short of EU standards in some aspects.

Potential Implications of EU Membership Application

Even if Armenia's accession to the EU is not immediately feasible, an application would signal a significant geopolitical shift away from Russia. It would align Armenia with Western values and institutions, a trend already evident in the country's recent reorientation of security partnerships