France's Strategic Blueprint: Leading the Way in Ukrainian Intervention

 

French Plans for Ukrainian Intervention: Deterrence and Leadership

Macron's Hint and Military Support

French President Emmanuel Macron has hinted at the possibility of ground troop deployment in Ukraine, declaring there is no consensus but 'nothing should be ruled out.' Army Chief of Staff General Thierry Burkhard has also suggested French support could extend beyond military supplies.

Potential Scenarios

Deploying soldiers could involve various roles, such as training, advisory, or security. France can mobilize 20,000 soldiers within a month, and could potentially lead a 60,000-strong NATO coalition.

Aims of Intervention

1. Deterrence of Russia: Macron's намерение is to deter Russia by signaling that Ukraine's military aid is not diminishing. Russia's battlefield gains may have prompted Macron to raise the stakes.

2. French Leadership: Intervention would solidify France's leadership in Europe. Macron has aspirations for a European army and common foreign policy, and this move could advance those goals.

Challenges

1. US Elections and NATO Consensus: US elections may hinder American troop deployment, and most NATO members will seek US guidance.

2. Military Aid Disparity: Despite Macron's rhetoric, France lags behind other NATO members in providing military aid to Ukraine. Macron's actions do not fully align with his stated intentions.

Alternative Options

Instead of troop deployment, Macron could focus on:

• Mobilizing the European defense industry
• Convincing Germany to supply long-range weapons

These options are more achievable and could also contribute to deterring Russia.